Deal Lab · Buyout model 1.0
PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk Buyout Model
A buyout of PT Adaro Andalan Indonesia Tbk on its published figures for fiscal 2025, in US dollars: revenue flat, the margin and the shares of revenue of that period, entry and exit at 10.0x EBITDA, exit after 5 years.
Returns
Internal rate of return
3.4%
Multiple of money
1.18x
Sponsor's equity
$6.0bn
Enterprise value
$11.7bn
Proceeds at exit
$7.1bn
Sources and Uses
| Uses | Amount |
|---|---|
| Equity price | $11.5bn |
| Borrowings refinanced | $801m |
| Transaction costs | $233m |
| Financing fees | $116m |
| Minimum cash | $98.2m |
| Uses | $12.7bn |
| Sources | Amount |
|---|---|
| Senior loan | $4.4bn |
| Subordinated notes | $1.5bn |
| Cash of the company | $925m |
| Sponsor's equity | $6.0bn |
| Sources | $12.7bn |
Projection
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.9bn | $4.9bn | $4.9bn | $4.9bn | $4.9bn | $4.9bn |
| EBITDA of the case | $1.2bn | $1.2bn | $1.2bn | $1.2bn | $1.2bn | $1.2bn |
| Cash cost of leases | $7.7m | $7.7m | $7.7m | $7.7m | $7.7m | $7.7m |
| Depreciation and amortisation | $124m | $124m | $124m | $124m | $124m | |
| Capital expenditure | $311m | $311m | $311m | $311m | $311m | |
| Increase in working capital | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Interest | $465m | $446m | $426m | $405m | $382m | |
| Tax | $127m | $131m | $135m | $140m | $145m | |
| Cash available for debt service | $722m | $718m | $713m | $708m | $704m |
Debt Schedule
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senior loan | $4.4bn | $4.1bn | $3.8bn | $3.5bn | $3.2bn | $2.9bn |
| Subordinated notes | $1.5bn | $1.5bn | $1.5bn | $1.5bn | $1.5bn | $1.5bn |
| Revolving facility | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Cash | $98.2m | $98.2m | $98.2m | $98.2m | $98.2m | $98.2m |
| Debt to EBITDA | 5.00x | 4.78x | 4.55x | 4.30x | 4.04x | 3.77x |
| EBITDA to interest | 2.51x | 2.62x | 2.74x | 2.88x | 3.05x |
Covenants and the Credit View
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Limit of debt to EBITDA | 6.50x | |||||
| Lease-adjusted debt to EBITDA | 5.00x | 4.78x | 4.55x | 4.30x | 4.04x | 3.77x |
| Band of debt to EBITDA | Highly leveraged | Aggressive | Aggressive | Aggressive | Aggressive | Significant |
Return Bridge
| Amount | |
|---|---|
| Sponsor's equity | $6.0bn |
| EBITDA growth | $0 |
| Change of multiple | $0 |
| Net debt repaid | +$1.4bn |
| Non-controlling interests | $0 |
| Costs at closing | −$350m |
| Management and limited liability | $0 |
| Proceeds at exit | $7.1bn |
Sensitivity Tables
| Entry by exit | 8.00x | 9.00x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.00x | 5.7% | 10.2% | 14.1% | 17.5% | 20.5% |
| 9.00x | −0.2% | 4.3% | 8.1% | 11.5% | 14.5% |
| 10.0x | −4.6% | −0.3% | 3.4% | 6.6% | 9.5% |
| 11.0x | −8.0% | −3.8% | −0.3% | 2.8% | 5.6% |
| 12.0x | −10.8% | −6.7% | −3.3% | −0.3% | 2.4% |
| Debt by growth | −4.0% | −2.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00x | −2.8% | 0.7% | 4.0% | 7.1% | 10.1% |
| 4.50x | −3.8% | 0.1% | 3.7% | 7.1% | 10.4% |
| 5.00x | −5.1% | −0.6% | 3.4% | 7.2% | 10.7% |
| 5.50x | −6.7% | −1.5% | 3.1% | 7.2% | 11.1% |
| 6.00x | −8.9% | −2.7% | 2.6% | 7.3% | 11.6% |
Solvers
Highest entry multiple for a return of 20.0%
n/a
No entry multiple reaches the target
Revenue growth a year for a return of 20.0%
9.8%
The target return
Debt capacity at closing, times EBITDA
6.00x
The loan to value limit
Assumptions and Their Origins
| Group | Assumption | Value | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transaction | Entry multiple | 10.0x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Years to exit | 5 years | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Transaction costs | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Financing fees | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Minimum cash, of revenue | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Debt at closing, times EBITDA | 5.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Debt at most, of the enterprise value | 60.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Senior loan, of the new debt | 75.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Senior loan repaid each year | 1.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Cash sweep | 100% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Revolving facility, times EBITDA | 1.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Base rate | 3.9% | Policy rate of the United States, BIS central bank policy rates, 27 October 2026 |
| Financing | Senior loan spread | 3.5% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Subordinated notes spread | 6.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Revolving facility spread | 3.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Covenant headroom on debt to EBITDA | 30.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Minimum EBITDA to interest | 2.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Operations | Revenue growth a year | 0.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Operations | EBITDA margin | 23.8% | EBITDA over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Cash cost of leases, of revenue | 0.2% | Cash cost of leases over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Depreciation and amortisation, of revenue | 2.5% | Depreciation and amortisation over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Capital expenditure, of revenue | 6.3% | Median capital expenditure over revenue, fiscal 2023 to 2025 |
| Operations | Working capital, of revenue | 1.3% | Working capital over revenue, end of the fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Leases as debt | Yes | Leases as debt, the basis of the credit metrics |
| Operations | Share-based pay added back | No | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Taxes | Tax rate | 22.0% | Combined statutory rate of corporate income tax of Indonesia, OECD Corporate Tax Statistics, 2026 |
| Taxes | Interest deducted up to 30% of EBITDA | No | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Exit multiple | 10.0x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Management share of the proceeds | 0.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Target return | 20.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
Inputs and Their Documents
Published figures of fiscal 2025, each with the documents it comes from.
| Input | Value | Method | Documents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | $1.2bn | Adjusted EBITDA of the company page | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Share-based pay | $0 | No share-based pay is reported | Annual report 2025-12 |
| EBITDA after share-based pay | $1.2bn | Adjusted EBITDA less share-based pay | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Depreciation and amortisation | $124m | Depreciation and amortisation of adjusted EBITDA | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Revenue | $4.9bn | Revenue of the base period | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Borrowings | $801m | Total debt less lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Lease liabilities | $25.1m | Lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $925m | Cash and short-term investments | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Non-controlling interests | $316m | Non-controlling interests | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Receivables | $502m | Receivables | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Payables | $523m | Payables | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Inventories | $85.5m | Inventories | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Payments of lease liabilities | $5.9m | Payments of lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Interest on lease liabilities | $1.8m est. | Interest on lease liabilities at the average rate of finance costs on total debt | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Capital expenditure | $311m | Capital expenditure of the latest fiscal year | Annual report 2025-12 |
Checks of the Model
- Sources equal uses
- The equity price is above nil
- The sponsor's equity is above nil
- Each balance of debt stays between nil and its amount at closing
- Cash is the cash of the year before and the cash flow of the year
- Cash stays at the minimum unless a shortfall is stated
- The 6 parts of the bridge add up to the proceeds less the sponsor's equity
- The cash flows at the internal rate of return have a present value of nil
Deal Lab computes arithmetic on published figures and on the assumptions of the user. It values no company, recommends no transaction and forecasts no result.