Deal Lab · Buyout model 1.0
PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk Buyout Model
A buyout of PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk on its published figures for fiscal 2025, in US dollars: revenue flat, the margin and the shares of revenue of that period, entry and exit at 10.0x EBITDA, exit after 5 years.
Returns
Internal rate of return
−16.6%
Multiple of money
0.40x
Sponsor's equity
$3.6bn
Enterprise value
$7.7bn
Proceeds at exit
$1.5bn
Sources and Uses
| Uses | Amount |
|---|---|
| Equity price | $7.4bn |
| Borrowings refinanced | $745m |
| Transaction costs | $154m |
| Financing fees | $75.7m |
| Minimum cash | $37.5m |
| Uses | $8.4bn |
| Sources | Amount |
|---|---|
| Senior loan | $2.8bn |
| Subordinated notes | $946m |
| Cash of the company | $1.0bn |
| Sponsor's equity | $3.6bn |
| Sources | $8.4bn |
Projection
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.9bn | $1.9bn | $1.9bn | $1.9bn | $1.9bn | $1.9bn |
| EBITDA of the case | $772m | $772m | $772m | $772m | $772m | $772m |
| Cash cost of leases | $48.3m | $48.3m | $48.3m | $48.3m | $48.3m | $48.3m |
| Depreciation and amortisation | $254m | $254m | $254m | $254m | $254m | |
| Capital expenditure | $733m | $733m | $733m | $733m | $733m | |
| Increase in working capital | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Interest | $303m | $327m | $351m | $349m | $347m | |
| Tax | $46.9m | $41.5m | $36.2m | $36.6m | $37.1m | |
| Cash available for debt service | −$56.6m | −$51.2m | −$45.8m | −$46.3m | −$46.7m |
Debt Schedule
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senior loan | $2.8bn | $2.8bn | $2.8bn | $2.8bn | $2.7bn | $2.7bn |
| Subordinated notes | $946m | $946m | $946m | $946m | $946m | $946m |
| Revolving facility | $0 | $388m | $772m | $772m | $772m | $772m |
| Cash | $37.5m | $37.5m | $15.0m | −$411m | −$835m | −$1.3bn |
| Debt to EBITDA | 5.00x | 5.47x | 5.93x | 5.89x | 5.85x | 5.82x |
| EBITDA to interest | 2.55x | 2.36x | 2.20x | 2.21x | 2.22x |
Covenants and the Credit View
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Limit of debt to EBITDA | 6.50x | |||||
| Lease-adjusted debt to EBITDA | 5.00x | 5.47x | 5.93x | 5.89x | 5.85x | 5.82x |
| Band of debt to EBITDA | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged |
Return Bridge
| Amount | |
|---|---|
| Sponsor's equity | $3.6bn |
| EBITDA growth | $0 |
| Change of multiple | $0 |
| Net debt repaid | −$1.9bn |
| Non-controlling interests | $0 |
| Costs at closing | −$230m |
| Management and limited liability | $0 |
| Proceeds at exit | $1.5bn |
Sensitivity Tables
| Entry by exit | 8.00x | 9.00x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.00x | −44.8% | −16.6% | −5.4% | 2.1% | 7.9% |
| 9.00x | −100% | −24.7% | −12.4% | −4.6% | 1.2% |
| 10.0x | −100% | −28.3% | −16.6% | −9.2% | −3.6% |
| 11.0x | −100% | −31.1% | −19.9% | −12.7% | −7.4% |
| 12.0x | −100% | −33.4% | −22.5% | −15.6% | −10.4% |
| Debt by growth | −4.0% | −2.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00x | −21.8% | −15.8% | −10.8% | −6.3% | −2.3% |
| 4.50x | −28.1% | −19.6% | −13.2% | −7.9% | −3.3% |
| 5.00x | −41.0% | −25.5% | −16.6% | −10.0% | −4.5% |
| 5.50x | −100% | −36.8% | −21.8% | −12.9% | −6.1% |
| 6.00x | −100% | −100% | −31.1% | −17.1% | −8.3% |
Solvers
Highest entry multiple for a return of 20.0%
n/a
No entry multiple reaches the target
Revenue growth a year for a return of 20.0%
16.6%
The target return
Debt capacity at closing, times EBITDA
n/a
The covenants fail without new debt
Assumptions and Their Origins
| Group | Assumption | Value | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transaction | Entry multiple | 10.0x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Years to exit | 5 years | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Transaction costs | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Financing fees | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Minimum cash, of revenue | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Debt at closing, times EBITDA | 5.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Debt at most, of the enterprise value | 60.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Senior loan, of the new debt | 75.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Senior loan repaid each year | 1.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Cash sweep | 100% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Revolving facility, times EBITDA | 1.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Base rate | 3.9% | Policy rate of the United States, BIS central bank policy rates, 27 October 2026 |
| Financing | Senior loan spread | 3.5% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Subordinated notes spread | 6.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Revolving facility spread | 3.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Covenant headroom on debt to EBITDA | 30.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Minimum EBITDA to interest | 2.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Operations | Revenue growth a year | 0.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Operations | EBITDA margin | 41.2% | EBITDA over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Cash cost of leases, of revenue | 2.6% | Cash cost of leases over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Depreciation and amortisation, of revenue | 13.6% | Depreciation and amortisation over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Capital expenditure, of revenue | 39.1% | Median capital expenditure over revenue, fiscal 2023 to 2025 |
| Operations | Working capital, of revenue | 18.0% | Working capital over revenue, end of the fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Leases as debt | Yes | Leases as debt, the basis of the credit metrics |
| Operations | Share-based pay added back | No | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Taxes | Tax rate | 22.0% | Combined statutory rate of corporate income tax of Indonesia, OECD Corporate Tax Statistics, 2026 |
| Taxes | Interest deducted up to 30% of EBITDA | No | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Exit multiple | 10.0x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Management share of the proceeds | 0.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Target return | 20.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
Inputs and Their Documents
Published figures of fiscal 2025, each with the documents it comes from.
| Input | Value | Method | Documents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | $772m | Adjusted EBITDA of the company page | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Share-based pay | $0 | No share-based pay is reported | Annual report 2025-12 |
| EBITDA after share-based pay | $772m | Adjusted EBITDA less share-based pay | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Depreciation and amortisation | $254m | Depreciation and amortisation of adjusted EBITDA | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Revenue | $1.9bn | Revenue of the base period | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Borrowings | $745m | Total debt less lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Lease liabilities | $76.2m | Lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $1.0bn | Cash and short-term investments | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Non-controlling interests | $519m | Non-controlling interests | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Receivables | $393m | Receivables | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Payables | $171m | Payables | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Inventories | $116m | Inventories | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Payments of lease liabilities | $46.6m | Payments of lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Interest on lease liabilities | $1.7m est. | Interest on lease liabilities at the average rate of finance costs on total debt | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Capital expenditure | $790m | Capital expenditure of the latest fiscal year | Annual report 2025-12 |
Checks of the Model
- Sources equal uses
- The equity price is above nil
- The sponsor's equity is above nil
- Each balance of debt stays between nil and its amount at closing
- Cash is the cash of the year before and the cash flow of the year
- Cash stays at the minimum unless a shortfall is stated
- The 6 parts of the bridge add up to the proceeds less the sponsor's equity
- The cash flows at the internal rate of return have a present value of nil
Deal Lab computes arithmetic on published figures and on the assumptions of the user. It values no company, recommends no transaction and forecasts no result.