Deal Lab · Buyout model 1.0
PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk Buyout Model
A buyout of PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk on its published figures for fiscal 2025, in rupiah: revenue flat, the margin and the shares of revenue of that period, entry and exit at 10.0x EBITDA, exit after 5 years.
Returns
Internal rate of return
3.8%
Multiple of money
1.21x
Sponsor's equity
Rp24.04tn
Enterprise value
Rp44.72tn
Proceeds at exit
Rp29.03tn
Sources and Uses
| Uses | Amount |
|---|---|
| Equity price | Rp47.85tn |
| Borrowings refinanced | Rp2.00tn |
| Transaction costs | Rp894bn |
| Financing fees | Rp432bn |
| Minimum cash | Rp355bn |
| Uses | Rp51.53tn |
| Sources | Amount |
|---|---|
| Senior loan | Rp16.21tn |
| Subordinated notes | Rp5.40tn |
| Cash of the company | Rp5.87tn |
| Sponsor's equity | Rp24.04tn |
| Sources | Rp51.53tn |
Projection
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp17.73tn | Rp17.73tn | Rp17.73tn | Rp17.73tn | Rp17.73tn | Rp17.73tn |
| EBITDA of the case | Rp4.47tn | Rp4.47tn | Rp4.47tn | Rp4.47tn | Rp4.47tn | Rp4.47tn |
| Cash cost of leases | Rp541bn | Rp541bn | Rp541bn | Rp541bn | Rp541bn | Rp541bn |
| Depreciation and amortisation | Rp1.56tn | Rp1.56tn | Rp1.56tn | Rp1.56tn | Rp1.56tn | |
| Capital expenditure | Rp542bn | Rp542bn | Rp542bn | Rp542bn | Rp542bn | |
| Increase in working capital | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | |
| Interest | Rp2.13tn | Rp2.03tn | Rp1.92tn | Rp1.81tn | Rp1.68tn | |
| Tax | Rp160bn | Rp182bn | Rp206bn | Rp232bn | Rp259bn | |
| Cash available for debt service | Rp3.23tn | Rp3.21tn | Rp3.18tn | Rp3.16tn | Rp3.13tn |
Debt Schedule
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senior loan | Rp16.21tn | Rp15.12tn | Rp13.94tn | Rp12.69tn | Rp11.34tn | Rp9.89tn |
| Subordinated notes | Rp5.40tn | Rp5.40tn | Rp5.40tn | Rp5.40tn | Rp5.40tn | Rp5.40tn |
| Revolving facility | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 |
| Cash | Rp355bn | Rp355bn | Rp355bn | Rp355bn | Rp355bn | Rp355bn |
| Debt to EBITDA | 5.00x | 4.76x | 4.49x | 4.21x | 3.91x | 3.59x |
| EBITDA to interest | 2.09x | 2.20x | 2.32x | 2.47x | 2.66x |
Covenants and the Credit View
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Limit of debt to EBITDA | 6.50x | |||||
| Lease-adjusted debt to EBITDA | 5.00x | 4.76x | 4.49x | 4.21x | 3.91x | 3.59x |
| Band of debt to EBITDA | Highly leveraged | Aggressive | Aggressive | Aggressive | Significant | Significant |
Return Bridge
| Amount | |
|---|---|
| Sponsor's equity | Rp24.04tn |
| EBITDA growth | Rp0 |
| Change of multiple | Rp0 |
| Net debt repaid | +Rp6.32tn |
| Non-controlling interests | Rp0 |
| Costs at closing | −Rp1.33tn |
| Management and limited liability | Rp0 |
| Proceeds at exit | Rp29.03tn |
Sensitivity Tables
| Entry by exit | 8.00x | 9.00x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.00x | 6.2% | 10.4% | 13.9% | 17.1% | 20.0% |
| 9.00x | 0.6% | 4.7% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 14.3% |
| 10.0x | −3.5% | 0.4% | 3.8% | 6.9% | 9.6% |
| 11.0x | −6.8% | −3.0% | 0.3% | 3.2% | 5.8% |
| 12.0x | −9.5% | −5.8% | −2.6% | 0.2% | 2.7% |
| Debt by growth | −4.0% | −2.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00x | −1.6% | 1.5% | 4.5% | 7.4% | 10.2% |
| 4.50x | −2.6% | 0.9% | 4.2% | 7.4% | 10.4% |
| 5.00x | −3.8% | 0.2% | 3.8% | 7.3% | 10.6% |
| 5.50x | −5.4% | −0.8% | 3.4% | 7.2% | 10.8% |
| 6.00x | −7.5% | −2.0% | 2.8% | 7.1% | 11.1% |
Solvers
Highest entry multiple for a return of 20.0%
n/a
No entry multiple reaches the target
Revenue growth a year for a return of 20.0%
10.2%
The target return
Debt capacity at closing, times EBITDA
5.23x
The interest cover or the limit of debt to EBITDA
Assumptions and Their Origins
| Group | Assumption | Value | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transaction | Entry multiple | 10.0x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Years to exit | 5 years | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Transaction costs | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Financing fees | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Minimum cash, of revenue | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Debt at closing, times EBITDA | 5.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Debt at most, of the enterprise value | 60.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Senior loan, of the new debt | 75.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Senior loan repaid each year | 1.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Cash sweep | 100% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Revolving facility, times EBITDA | 1.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Base rate | 5.8% | Policy rate of Indonesia, BIS central bank policy rates, 6 November 2026 |
| Financing | Senior loan spread | 3.5% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Subordinated notes spread | 6.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Revolving facility spread | 3.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Covenant headroom on debt to EBITDA | 30.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Minimum EBITDA to interest | 2.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Operations | Revenue growth a year | 0.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Operations | EBITDA margin | 25.2% | EBITDA over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Cash cost of leases, of revenue | 3.1% | Cash cost of leases over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Depreciation and amortisation, of revenue | 8.8% | Depreciation and amortisation over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Capital expenditure, of revenue | 3.1% | Median capital expenditure over revenue, fiscal 2023 to 2023 |
| Operations | Working capital, of revenue | 18.7% | Working capital over revenue, end of the fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Leases as debt | Yes | Leases as debt, the basis of the credit metrics |
| Operations | Share-based pay added back | No | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Taxes | Tax rate | 22.0% | Combined statutory rate of corporate income tax of Indonesia, OECD Corporate Tax Statistics, 2026 |
| Taxes | Interest deducted up to 30% of EBITDA | No | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Exit multiple | 10.0x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Management share of the proceeds | 0.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Target return | 20.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
Inputs and Their Documents
Published figures of fiscal 2025, each with the documents it comes from.
| Input | Value | Method | Documents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | Rp4.47tn | Adjusted EBITDA of the company page | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Share-based pay | Rp0 | No share-based pay is reported | Annual report 2025-12 |
| EBITDA after share-based pay | Rp4.47tn | Adjusted EBITDA less share-based pay | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Depreciation and amortisation | Rp1.56tn | Depreciation and amortisation of adjusted EBITDA | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Revenue | Rp17.73tn | Revenue of the base period | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Borrowings | Rp2.00tn | Total debt less lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Lease liabilities | Rp743bn | Lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Cash and short-term investments | Rp5.87tn | Cash and short-term investments | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Non-controlling interests | Rp0 | The balance sheet reports none | n/a |
| Receivables | Rp2.75tn | Receivables | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Payables | Rp1.61tn | Payables | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Inventories | Rp2.18tn | Inventories | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Payments of lease liabilities | Rp494bn | Payments of lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Interest on lease liabilities | Rp46.8bn est. | Interest on lease liabilities at the average rate of finance costs on total debt | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Capital expenditure | Rp549bn | Capital expenditure of the latest fiscal year | Annual report 2024-12 |
Checks of the Model
- Sources equal uses
- The equity price is above nil
- The sponsor's equity is above nil
- Each balance of debt stays between nil and its amount at closing
- Cash is the cash of the year before and the cash flow of the year
- Cash stays at the minimum unless a shortfall is stated
- The 6 parts of the bridge add up to the proceeds less the sponsor's equity
- The cash flows at the internal rate of return have a present value of nil
Deal Lab computes arithmetic on published figures and on the assumptions of the user. It values no company, recommends no transaction and forecasts no result.