Deal Lab · Buyout model 1.0
PT Indosat Tbk Buyout Model
A buyout of PT Indosat Tbk on its published figures for fiscal 2025, in rupiah: revenue flat, the margin and the shares of revenue of that period, entry and exit at 10.0x EBITDA, exit after 5 years.
Returns
Internal rate of return
−4.9%
Multiple of money
0.78x
Sponsor's equity
Rp141.93tn
Enterprise value
Rp273.17tn
Proceeds at exit
Rp110.41tn
Sources and Uses
| Uses | Amount |
|---|---|
| Equity price | Rp220.14tn |
| Borrowings refinanced | Rp15.38tn |
| Transaction costs | Rp5.46tn |
| Financing fees | Rp1.94tn |
| Minimum cash | Rp1.13tn |
| Uses | Rp244.06tn |
| Sources | Amount |
|---|---|
| Senior loan | Rp72.79tn |
| Subordinated notes | Rp24.26tn |
| Cash of the company | Rp5.08tn |
| Sponsor's equity | Rp141.93tn |
| Sources | Rp244.06tn |
Projection
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp56.52tn | Rp56.52tn | Rp56.52tn | Rp56.52tn | Rp56.52tn | Rp56.52tn |
| EBITDA of the case | Rp27.32tn | Rp27.32tn | Rp27.32tn | Rp27.32tn | Rp27.32tn | Rp27.32tn |
| Cash cost of leases | Rp9.13tn | Rp9.13tn | Rp9.13tn | Rp9.13tn | Rp9.13tn | Rp9.13tn |
| Depreciation and amortisation | Rp15.83tn | Rp15.83tn | Rp15.83tn | Rp15.83tn | Rp15.83tn | |
| Capital expenditure | Rp12.66tn | Rp12.66tn | Rp12.66tn | Rp12.66tn | Rp12.66tn | |
| Increase in working capital | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | |
| Interest | Rp9.58tn | Rp9.94tn | Rp10.32tn | Rp10.73tn | Rp11.18tn | |
| Tax | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | |
| Cash available for debt service | Rp5.53tn | Rp5.53tn | Rp5.53tn | Rp5.53tn | Rp5.53tn |
Debt Schedule
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senior loan | Rp72.79tn | Rp72.06tn | Rp71.33tn | Rp70.60tn | Rp69.88tn | Rp69.15tn |
| Subordinated notes | Rp24.26tn | Rp24.26tn | Rp24.26tn | Rp24.26tn | Rp24.26tn | Rp24.26tn |
| Revolving facility | Rp0 | Rp4.78tn | Rp9.92tn | Rp15.44tn | Rp21.37tn | Rp27.32tn |
| Cash | Rp1.13tn | Rp1.13tn | Rp1.13tn | Rp1.13tn | Rp1.13tn | Rp689bn |
| Debt to EBITDA | 5.00x | 5.15x | 5.31x | 5.49x | 5.68x | 5.87x |
| EBITDA to interest | 2.85x | 2.75x | 2.65x | 2.55x | 2.44x |
Covenants and the Credit View
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Limit of debt to EBITDA | 6.50x | |||||
| Lease-adjusted debt to EBITDA | 5.00x | 5.15x | 5.31x | 5.49x | 5.68x | 5.87x |
| Band of debt to EBITDA | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged |
Return Bridge
| Amount | |
|---|---|
| Sponsor's equity | Rp141.93tn |
| EBITDA growth | Rp0 |
| Change of multiple | Rp0 |
| Net debt repaid | −Rp24.12tn |
| Non-controlling interests | Rp0 |
| Costs at closing | −Rp7.40tn |
| Management and limited liability | Rp0 |
| Proceeds at exit | Rp110.41tn |
Sensitivity Tables
| Entry by exit | 8.00x | 9.00x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.00x | −6.8% | 0.0% | 5.4% | 9.8% | 13.7% |
| 9.00x | −13.3% | −6.1% | −0.7% | 3.8% | 7.7% |
| 10.0x | −17.0% | −10.2% | −4.9% | −0.6% | 3.1% |
| 11.0x | −20.0% | −13.3% | −8.2% | −4.1% | −0.6% |
| 12.0x | −22.4% | −15.9% | −11.0% | −7.0% | −3.5% |
| Debt by growth | −4.0% | −2.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00x | −9.8% | −5.8% | −2.1% | 1.4% | 4.7% |
| 4.50x | −12.6% | −7.6% | −3.2% | 0.7% | 4.4% |
| 5.00x | −16.5% | −10.2% | −4.9% | −0.3% | 3.9% |
| 5.50x | −22.4% | −13.7% | −7.1% | −1.6% | 3.2% |
| 6.00x | −33.5% | −18.9% | −10.1% | −3.3% | 2.3% |
Solvers
Highest entry multiple for a return of 20.0%
n/a
No entry multiple reaches the target
Revenue growth a year for a return of 20.0%
13.3%
The target return
Debt capacity at closing, times EBITDA
5.75x
The interest cover or the limit of debt to EBITDA
Assumptions and Their Origins
| Group | Assumption | Value | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transaction | Entry multiple | 10.0x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Years to exit | 5 years | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Transaction costs | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Financing fees | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Minimum cash, of revenue | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Debt at closing, times EBITDA | 5.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Debt at most, of the enterprise value | 60.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Senior loan, of the new debt | 75.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Senior loan repaid each year | 1.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Cash sweep | 100% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Revolving facility, times EBITDA | 1.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Base rate | 5.8% | Policy rate of Indonesia, BIS central bank policy rates, 19 October 2026 |
| Financing | Senior loan spread | 3.5% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Subordinated notes spread | 6.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Revolving facility spread | 3.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Covenant headroom on debt to EBITDA | 30.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Minimum EBITDA to interest | 2.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Operations | Revenue growth a year | 0.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Operations | EBITDA margin | 48.3% | EBITDA over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Cash cost of leases, of revenue | 16.2% | Cash cost of leases over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Depreciation and amortisation, of revenue | 28.0% | Depreciation and amortisation over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Capital expenditure, of revenue | 22.4% | Median capital expenditure over revenue, fiscal 2023 to 2025 |
| Operations | Working capital, of revenue | 4.3% | Working capital over revenue, end of the fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Leases as debt | Yes | Leases as debt, the basis of the credit metrics |
| Operations | Share-based pay added back | No | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Taxes | Tax rate | 22.0% | Combined statutory rate of corporate income tax of Indonesia, OECD Corporate Tax Statistics, 2026 |
| Taxes | Interest deducted up to 30% of EBITDA | No | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Exit multiple | 10.0x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Management share of the proceeds | 0.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Target return | 20.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
Inputs and Their Documents
Published figures of fiscal 2025, each with the documents it comes from.
| Input | Value | Method | Documents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | Rp27.32tn | Adjusted EBITDA of the company page | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Share-based pay | Rp0 | No share-based pay is reported | Annual report 2025-12 |
| EBITDA after share-based pay | Rp27.32tn | Adjusted EBITDA less share-based pay | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Depreciation and amortisation | Rp15.83tn | Depreciation and amortisation of adjusted EBITDA | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Revenue | Rp56.52tn | Revenue of the base period | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Borrowings | Rp15.38tn | Total debt less lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Lease liabilities | Rp39.54tn | Lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Cash and short-term investments | Rp5.08tn | Cash and short-term investments | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Non-controlling interests | Rp3.19tn | Non-controlling interests | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Receivables | Rp3.60tn | Receivables | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Payables | Rp1.21tn | Payables | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Inventories | Rp54.1bn | Inventories | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Payments of lease liabilities | Rp6.11tn | Payments of lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Interest on lease liabilities | Rp3.02tn est. | Interest on lease liabilities at the average rate of finance costs on total debt | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Capital expenditure | Rp12.36tn | Capital expenditure of the latest fiscal year | Annual report 2025-12 |
Checks of the Model
- Sources equal uses
- The equity price is above nil
- The sponsor's equity is above nil
- Each balance of debt stays between nil and its amount at closing
- Cash is the cash of the year before and the cash flow of the year
- Cash stays at the minimum unless a shortfall is stated
- The 6 parts of the bridge add up to the proceeds less the sponsor's equity
- The cash flows at the internal rate of return have a present value of nil
Deal Lab computes arithmetic on published figures and on the assumptions of the user. It values no company, recommends no transaction and forecasts no result.