Deal Lab · Buyout model 1.0
PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk Buyout Model
A buyout of PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk on its published figures for fiscal 2025, in US dollars: revenue flat, the margin and the shares of revenue of that period, entry and exit at 10.0x EBITDA, exit after 5 years.
Returns
Internal rate of return
8.4%
Multiple of money
1.50x
Sponsor's equity
$3.9bn
Enterprise value
$8.8bn
Proceeds at exit
$5.8bn
Sources and Uses
| Uses | Amount |
|---|---|
| Equity price | $8.2bn |
| Borrowings refinanced | $742m |
| Transaction costs | $177m |
| Financing fees | $81.2m |
| Minimum cash | $79.5m |
| Uses | $9.3bn |
| Sources | Amount |
|---|---|
| Senior loan | $3.0bn |
| Subordinated notes | $1.0bn |
| Cash of the company | $1.3bn |
| Sponsor's equity | $3.9bn |
| Sources | $9.3bn |
Projection
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.0bn | $4.0bn | $4.0bn | $4.0bn | $4.0bn | $4.0bn |
| EBITDA of the case | $883m | $883m | $883m | $883m | $883m | $883m |
| Cash cost of leases | $62.5m | $62.5m | $62.5m | $62.5m | $62.5m | $62.5m |
| Depreciation and amortisation | $363m | $363m | $363m | $363m | $363m | |
| Capital expenditure | $65.9m | $65.9m | $65.9m | $65.9m | $65.9m | |
| Increase in working capital | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | |
| Interest | $325m | $296m | $265m | $233m | $199m | |
| Tax | $38.3m | $44.6m | $51.3m | $58.4m | $66.0m | |
| Cash available for debt service | $716m | $710m | $703m | $696m | $689m |
Debt Schedule
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senior loan | $3.0bn | $2.7bn | $2.2bn | $1.8bn | $1.3bn | $847m |
| Subordinated notes | $1.0bn | $1.0bn | $1.0bn | $1.0bn | $1.0bn | $1.0bn |
| Revolving facility | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Cash | $79.5m | $79.5m | $79.5m | $79.5m | $79.5m | $79.5m |
| Debt to EBITDA | 5.00x | 4.56x | 4.09x | 3.59x | 3.07x | 2.51x |
| EBITDA to interest | 2.72x | 2.99x | 3.33x | 3.79x | 4.44x |
Covenants and the Credit View
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Limit of debt to EBITDA | 6.50x | |||||
| Lease-adjusted debt to EBITDA | 5.00x | 4.56x | 4.09x | 3.59x | 3.07x | 2.51x |
| Band of debt to EBITDA | Highly leveraged | Aggressive | Aggressive | Significant | Significant | Intermediate |
Return Bridge
| Amount | |
|---|---|
| Sponsor's equity | $3.9bn |
| EBITDA growth | $0 |
| Change of multiple | $0 |
| Net debt repaid | +$2.2bn |
| Non-controlling interests | $0 |
| Costs at closing | −$258m |
| Management and limited liability | $0 |
| Proceeds at exit | $5.8bn |
Sensitivity Tables
| Entry by exit | 8.00x | 9.00x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.00x | 13.7% | 18.1% | 21.9% | 25.2% | 28.2% |
| 9.00x | 6.3% | 10.6% | 14.3% | 17.6% | 20.5% |
| 10.0x | 0.9% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 11.5% | 14.3% |
| 11.0x | −3.2% | 0.6% | 4.0% | 7.0% | 9.7% |
| 12.0x | −6.5% | −2.8% | 0.5% | 3.4% | 5.9% |
| Debt by growth | −4.0% | −2.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00x | 1.9% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 13.9% |
| 4.50x | 1.3% | 4.9% | 8.3% | 11.5% | 14.6% |
| 5.00x | 0.7% | 4.7% | 8.4% | 12.0% | 15.3% |
| 5.50x | −0.2% | 4.4% | 8.7% | 12.6% | 16.2% |
| 6.00x | −1.3% | 4.1% | 8.9% | 13.3% | 17.4% |
Solvers
Highest entry multiple for a return of 20.0%
n/a
No entry multiple reaches the target
Revenue growth a year for a return of 20.0%
6.9%
The target return
Debt capacity at closing, times EBITDA
6.00x
The loan to value limit
Assumptions and Their Origins
| Group | Assumption | Value | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transaction | Entry multiple | 10.0x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Years to exit | 5 years | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Transaction costs | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Financing fees | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Minimum cash, of revenue | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Debt at closing, times EBITDA | 5.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Debt at most, of the enterprise value | 60.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Senior loan, of the new debt | 75.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Senior loan repaid each year | 1.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Cash sweep | 100% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Revolving facility, times EBITDA | 1.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Base rate | 3.9% | Policy rate of the United States, BIS central bank policy rates, 27 October 2026 |
| Financing | Senior loan spread | 3.5% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Subordinated notes spread | 6.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Revolving facility spread | 3.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Covenant headroom on debt to EBITDA | 30.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Minimum EBITDA to interest | 2.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Operations | Revenue growth a year | 0.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Operations | EBITDA margin | 22.2% | EBITDA over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Cash cost of leases, of revenue | 1.6% | Cash cost of leases over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Depreciation and amortisation, of revenue | 9.1% | Depreciation and amortisation over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Capital expenditure, of revenue | 1.7% | Median capital expenditure over revenue, fiscal 2023 to 2025 |
| Operations | Working capital, of revenue | 6.5% | Working capital over revenue, end of the fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Leases as debt | Yes | Leases as debt, the basis of the credit metrics |
| Operations | Share-based pay added back | No | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Taxes | Tax rate | 22.0% | Combined statutory rate of corporate income tax of Indonesia, OECD Corporate Tax Statistics, 2026 |
| Taxes | Interest deducted up to 30% of EBITDA | No | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Exit multiple | 10.0x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Management share of the proceeds | 0.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Target return | 20.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
Inputs and Their Documents
Published figures of fiscal 2025, each with the documents it comes from.
| Input | Value | Method | Documents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | $883m | Adjusted EBITDA of the company page | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Share-based pay | $0 | No share-based pay is reported | Annual report 2025-12 |
| EBITDA after share-based pay | $883m | Adjusted EBITDA less share-based pay | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Depreciation and amortisation | $363m | Depreciation and amortisation of adjusted EBITDA | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Revenue | $4.0bn | Revenue of the base period | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Borrowings | $742m | Total debt less lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Lease liabilities | $356m | Lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $1.3bn | Cash and short-term investments | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Non-controlling interests | $867m | Non-controlling interests | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Receivables | $399m | Receivables | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Payables | $282m | Payables | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Inventories | $143m | Inventories | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Payments of lease liabilities | $41.4m | Payments of lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Interest on lease liabilities | $21.1m est. | Interest on lease liabilities at the average rate of finance costs on total debt | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Capital expenditure | $97.7m | Capital expenditure of the latest fiscal year | Annual report 2025-12 |
Checks of the Model
- Sources equal uses
- The equity price is above nil
- The sponsor's equity is above nil
- Each balance of debt stays between nil and its amount at closing
- Cash is the cash of the year before and the cash flow of the year
- Cash stays at the minimum unless a shortfall is stated
- The 6 parts of the bridge add up to the proceeds less the sponsor's equity
- The cash flows at the internal rate of return have a present value of nil
Deal Lab computes arithmetic on published figures and on the assumptions of the user. It values no company, recommends no transaction and forecasts no result.