Deal Lab · Buyout model 1.0
PT Pupuk Indonesia (Persero) Buyout Model
A buyout of PT Pupuk Indonesia (Persero) on its published figures for fiscal 2025, in rupiah: revenue flat, the margin and the shares of revenue of that period, entry and exit at 10.0x EBITDA, exit after 5 years.
Returns
Internal rate of return
−6.3%
Multiple of money
0.72x
Sponsor's equity
Rp77.38tn
Enterprise value
Rp143.00tn
Proceeds at exit
Rp55.83tn
Sources and Uses
| Uses | Amount |
|---|---|
| Equity price | Rp132.63tn |
| Borrowings refinanced | Rp21.60tn |
| Transaction costs | Rp2.86tn |
| Financing fees | Rp1.42tn |
| Minimum cash | Rp1.81tn |
| Uses | Rp160.33tn |
| Sources | Amount |
|---|---|
| Senior loan | Rp53.35tn |
| Subordinated notes | Rp17.78tn |
| Cash of the company | Rp11.82tn |
| Sponsor's equity | Rp77.38tn |
| Sources | Rp160.33tn |
Projection
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp90.40tn | Rp90.40tn | Rp90.40tn | Rp90.40tn | Rp90.40tn | Rp90.40tn |
| EBITDA of the case | Rp14.30tn | Rp14.30tn | Rp14.30tn | Rp14.30tn | Rp14.30tn | Rp14.30tn |
| Cash cost of leases | Rp516bn | Rp516bn | Rp516bn | Rp516bn | Rp516bn | Rp516bn |
| Depreciation and amortisation | Rp5.83tn | Rp5.83tn | Rp5.83tn | Rp5.83tn | Rp5.83tn | |
| Capital expenditure | Rp9.48tn | Rp9.48tn | Rp9.48tn | Rp9.48tn | Rp9.48tn | |
| Increase in working capital | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | |
| Interest | Rp7.02tn | Rp7.29tn | Rp7.57tn | Rp7.87tn | Rp8.08tn | |
| Tax | Rp314bn | Rp256bn | Rp194bn | Rp128bn | Rp81.7bn | |
| Cash available for debt service | Rp3.99tn | Rp4.05tn | Rp4.11tn | Rp4.18tn | Rp4.22tn |
Debt Schedule
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senior loan | Rp53.35tn | Rp52.81tn | Rp52.28tn | Rp51.75tn | Rp51.21tn | Rp50.68tn |
| Subordinated notes | Rp17.78tn | Rp17.78tn | Rp17.78tn | Rp17.78tn | Rp17.78tn | Rp17.78tn |
| Revolving facility | Rp0 | Rp3.56tn | Rp7.33tn | Rp11.32tn | Rp14.30tn | Rp14.30tn |
| Cash | Rp1.81tn | Rp1.81tn | Rp1.81tn | Rp1.81tn | Rp563bn | −Rp3.82tn |
| Debt to EBITDA | 5.00x | 5.21x | 5.44x | 5.68x | 5.85x | 5.81x |
| EBITDA to interest | 2.04x | 1.96x | 1.89x | 1.82x | 1.77x |
Covenants and the Credit View
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Limit of debt to EBITDA | 6.50x | |||||
| Lease-adjusted debt to EBITDA | 5.00x | 5.21x | 5.44x | 5.68x | 5.85x | 5.81x |
| Band of debt to EBITDA | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged | Highly leveraged |
Return Bridge
| Amount | |
|---|---|
| Sponsor's equity | Rp77.38tn |
| EBITDA growth | Rp0 |
| Change of multiple | Rp0 |
| Net debt repaid | −Rp17.26tn |
| Non-controlling interests | Rp0 |
| Costs at closing | −Rp4.28tn |
| Management and limited liability | Rp0 |
| Proceeds at exit | Rp55.83tn |
Sensitivity Tables
| Entry by exit | 8.00x | 9.00x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.00x | −9.3% | −2.2% | 3.3% | 7.8% | 11.6% |
| 9.00x | −15.4% | −7.9% | −2.3% | 2.2% | 6.1% |
| 10.0x | −18.9% | −11.7% | −6.3% | −1.9% | 1.8% |
| 11.0x | −21.6% | −14.7% | −9.5% | −5.3% | −1.7% |
| 12.0x | −23.9% | −17.2% | −12.1% | −8.0% | −4.5% |
| Debt by growth | −4.0% | −2.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00x | −10.9% | −7.1% | −3.5% | −0.2% | 3.0% |
| 4.50x | −13.5% | −8.9% | −4.8% | −1.0% | 2.5% |
| 5.00x | −17.1% | −11.2% | −6.3% | −2.0% | 2.0% |
| 5.50x | −22.6% | −14.5% | −8.3% | −3.2% | 1.3% |
| 6.00x | −32.9% | −19.6% | −11.2% | −4.7% | 0.6% |
Solvers
Highest entry multiple for a return of 20.0%
0.87x
The target return
Revenue growth a year for a return of 20.0%
14.9%
The target return
Debt capacity at closing, times EBITDA
4.44x
The interest cover or the limit of debt to EBITDA
Assumptions and Their Origins
| Group | Assumption | Value | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transaction | Entry multiple | 10.0x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Years to exit | 5 years | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Transaction costs | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Financing fees | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Minimum cash, of revenue | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Debt at closing, times EBITDA | 5.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Debt at most, of the enterprise value | 60.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Senior loan, of the new debt | 75.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Senior loan repaid each year | 1.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Cash sweep | 100% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Revolving facility, times EBITDA | 1.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Base rate | 5.8% | Policy rate of Indonesia, BIS central bank policy rates, 19 October 2026 |
| Financing | Senior loan spread | 3.5% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Subordinated notes spread | 6.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Revolving facility spread | 3.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Covenant headroom on debt to EBITDA | 30.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Minimum EBITDA to interest | 2.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Operations | Revenue growth a year | 0.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Operations | EBITDA margin | 15.8% | EBITDA over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Cash cost of leases, of revenue | 0.6% | Cash cost of leases over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Depreciation and amortisation, of revenue | 6.4% | Depreciation and amortisation over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Capital expenditure, of revenue | 10.5% | Median capital expenditure over revenue, fiscal 2023 to 2025 |
| Operations | Working capital, of revenue | 14.2% | Working capital over revenue, end of the fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Leases as debt | Yes | Leases as debt, the basis of the credit metrics |
| Operations | Share-based pay added back | No | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Taxes | Tax rate | 22.0% | Combined statutory rate of corporate income tax of Indonesia, OECD Corporate Tax Statistics, 2026 |
| Taxes | Interest deducted up to 30% of EBITDA | No | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Exit multiple | 10.0x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Management share of the proceeds | 0.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Target return | 20.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
Inputs and Their Documents
Published figures of fiscal 2025, each with the documents it comes from.
| Input | Value | Method | Documents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | Rp14.30tn | Adjusted EBITDA of the company page | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Share-based pay | Rp0 | No share-based pay is reported | Annual report 2025-12 |
| EBITDA after share-based pay | Rp14.30tn | Adjusted EBITDA less share-based pay | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Depreciation and amortisation | Rp5.83tn | Depreciation and amortisation of adjusted EBITDA | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Revenue | Rp90.40tn | Revenue of the base period | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Borrowings | Rp21.60tn | Total debt less lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Lease liabilities | Rp373bn | Lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Cash and short-term investments | Rp11.82tn | Cash and short-term investments | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Non-controlling interests | Rp215bn | Non-controlling interests | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Receivables | Rp2.31tn | Receivables | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Payables | Rp3.41tn | Payables | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Inventories | Rp13.97tn | Inventories | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Payments of lease liabilities | Rp493bn | Payments of lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Interest on lease liabilities | Rp23.3bn est. | Interest on lease liabilities at the average rate of finance costs on total debt | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Capital expenditure | Rp10.55tn | Capital expenditure of the latest fiscal year | Annual report 2025-12 |
Checks of the Model
- Sources equal uses
- The equity price is above nil
- The sponsor's equity is above nil
- Each balance of debt stays between nil and its amount at closing
- Cash is the cash of the year before and the cash flow of the year
- Cash stays at the minimum unless a shortfall is stated
- The 6 parts of the bridge add up to the proceeds less the sponsor's equity
- The cash flows at the internal rate of return have a present value of nil
Deal Lab computes arithmetic on published figures and on the assumptions of the user. It values no company, recommends no transaction and forecasts no result.