Deal Lab · Buyout model 1.0
PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk Buyout Model
A buyout of PT Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk on its published figures for fiscal 2025, in rupiah: revenue flat, the margin and the shares of revenue of that period, entry and exit at 10.0x EBITDA, exit after 5 years.
Returns
Internal rate of return
0.3%
Multiple of money
1.01x
Sponsor's equity
Rp365.77tn
Enterprise value
Rp722.97tn
Proceeds at exit
Rp370.92tn
Sources and Uses
| Uses | Amount |
|---|---|
| Equity price | Rp662.43tn |
| Borrowings refinanced | Rp50.77tn |
| Transaction costs | Rp14.46tn |
| Financing fees | Rp6.75tn |
| Minimum cash | Rp2.93tn |
| Uses | Rp737.35tn |
| Sources | Amount |
|---|---|
| Senior loan | Rp253.01tn |
| Subordinated notes | Rp84.34tn |
| Cash of the company | Rp34.23tn |
| Sponsor's equity | Rp365.77tn |
| Sources | Rp737.35tn |
Projection
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | Rp146.74tn | Rp146.74tn | Rp146.74tn | Rp146.74tn | Rp146.74tn | Rp146.74tn |
| EBITDA of the case | Rp72.30tn | Rp72.30tn | Rp72.30tn | Rp72.30tn | Rp72.30tn | Rp72.30tn |
| Cash cost of leases | Rp9.03tn | Rp9.03tn | Rp9.03tn | Rp9.03tn | Rp9.03tn | Rp9.03tn |
| Depreciation and amortisation | Rp37.65tn | Rp37.65tn | Rp37.65tn | Rp37.65tn | Rp37.65tn | |
| Capital expenditure | Rp25.45tn | Rp25.45tn | Rp25.45tn | Rp25.45tn | Rp25.45tn | |
| Increase in working capital | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | |
| Interest | Rp33.31tn | Rp32.90tn | Rp32.44tn | Rp31.96tn | Rp31.43tn | |
| Tax | Rp0 | Rp16.3bn | Rp116bn | Rp223bn | Rp338bn | |
| Cash available for debt service | Rp37.82tn | Rp37.80tn | Rp37.70tn | Rp37.59tn | Rp37.48tn |
Debt Schedule
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senior loan | Rp253.01tn | Rp248.51tn | Rp243.60tn | Rp238.34tn | Rp232.70tn | Rp226.66tn |
| Subordinated notes | Rp84.34tn | Rp84.34tn | Rp84.34tn | Rp84.34tn | Rp84.34tn | Rp84.34tn |
| Revolving facility | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 | Rp0 |
| Cash | Rp2.93tn | Rp2.93tn | Rp2.93tn | Rp2.93tn | Rp2.93tn | Rp2.93tn |
| Debt to EBITDA | 5.00x | 4.94x | 4.87x | 4.80x | 4.72x | 4.64x |
| EBITDA to interest | 2.17x | 2.20x | 2.23x | 2.26x | 2.30x |
Covenants and the Credit View
| Closing | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Limit of debt to EBITDA | 6.50x | |||||
| Lease-adjusted debt to EBITDA | 5.00x | 4.94x | 4.87x | 4.80x | 4.72x | 4.64x |
| Band of debt to EBITDA | Highly leveraged | Aggressive | Aggressive | Aggressive | Aggressive | Aggressive |
Return Bridge
| Amount | |
|---|---|
| Sponsor's equity | Rp365.77tn |
| EBITDA growth | Rp0 |
| Change of multiple | Rp0 |
| Net debt repaid | +Rp26.35tn |
| Non-controlling interests | Rp0 |
| Costs at closing | −Rp21.21tn |
| Management and limited liability | Rp0 |
| Proceeds at exit | Rp370.92tn |
Sensitivity Tables
| Entry by exit | 8.00x | 9.00x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.00x | 1.2% | 6.6% | 11.0% | 14.8% | 18.2% |
| 9.00x | −5.0% | 0.4% | 4.9% | 8.7% | 12.0% |
| 10.0x | −9.2% | −4.0% | 0.3% | 3.9% | 7.1% |
| 11.0x | −12.4% | −7.4% | −3.3% | 0.2% | 3.2% |
| 12.0x | −15.1% | −10.3% | −6.3% | −2.9% | 0.1% |
| Debt by growth | −4.0% | −2.0% | 0.0% | 2.0% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.00x | −5.7% | −1.8% | 1.7% | 5.1% | 8.3% |
| 4.50x | −7.4% | −2.9% | 1.1% | 4.8% | 8.3% |
| 5.00x | −9.9% | −4.5% | 0.3% | 4.5% | 8.3% |
| 5.50x | −13.6% | −6.7% | −1.0% | 3.9% | 8.3% |
| 6.00x | −19.2% | −9.8% | −2.7% | 3.1% | 8.2% |
Solvers
Highest entry multiple for a return of 20.0%
3.12x
The target return
Revenue growth a year for a return of 20.0%
10.9%
The target return
Debt capacity at closing, times EBITDA
5.40x
The interest cover or the limit of debt to EBITDA
Assumptions and Their Origins
| Group | Assumption | Value | Origin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transaction | Entry multiple | 10.0x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Years to exit | 5 years | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Transaction costs | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Financing fees | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Transaction | Minimum cash, of revenue | 2.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Debt at closing, times EBITDA | 5.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Debt at most, of the enterprise value | 60.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Senior loan, of the new debt | 75.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Senior loan repaid each year | 1.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Cash sweep | 100% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Revolving facility, times EBITDA | 1.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Base rate | 5.8% | Policy rate of Indonesia, BIS central bank policy rates, 19 October 2026 |
| Financing | Senior loan spread | 3.5% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Subordinated notes spread | 6.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Revolving facility spread | 3.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Covenant headroom on debt to EBITDA | 30.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Financing | Minimum EBITDA to interest | 2.00x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Operations | Revenue growth a year | 0.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Operations | EBITDA margin | 49.3% | EBITDA over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Cash cost of leases, of revenue | 6.2% | Cash cost of leases over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Depreciation and amortisation, of revenue | 25.7% | Depreciation and amortisation over revenue, fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Capital expenditure, of revenue | 17.3% | Median capital expenditure over revenue, fiscal 2023 to 2025 |
| Operations | Working capital, of revenue | −2.8% | Working capital over revenue, end of the fiscal 2025 |
| Operations | Leases as debt | Yes | Leases as debt, the basis of the credit metrics |
| Operations | Share-based pay added back | No | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Taxes | Tax rate | 22.0% | Combined statutory rate of corporate income tax of Indonesia, OECD Corporate Tax Statistics, 2026 |
| Taxes | Interest deducted up to 30% of EBITDA | No | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Exit multiple | 10.0x | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Management share of the proceeds | 0.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
| Exit | Target return | 20.0% | Convention of buyout 1.0 |
Inputs and Their Documents
Published figures of fiscal 2025, each with the documents it comes from.
| Input | Value | Method | Documents |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | Rp72.30tn | Adjusted EBITDA of the company page | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Share-based pay | Rp0 | No share-based pay is reported | Annual report 2025-12 |
| EBITDA after share-based pay | Rp72.30tn | Adjusted EBITDA less share-based pay | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Depreciation and amortisation | Rp37.65tn | Depreciation and amortisation of adjusted EBITDA | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Revenue | Rp146.74tn | Revenue of the base period | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Borrowings | Rp50.77tn | Total debt less lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Lease liabilities | Rp24.14tn | Lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Cash and short-term investments | Rp34.23tn | Cash and short-term investments | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Non-controlling interests | Rp19.85tn | Non-controlling interests | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Receivables | Rp11.22tn | Receivables | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Payables | Rp16.18tn | Payables | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Inventories | Rp901bn | Inventories | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Payments of lease liabilities | Rp7.36tn | Payments of lease liabilities | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Interest on lease liabilities | Rp1.68tn est. | Interest on lease liabilities at the average rate of finance costs on total debt | Annual report 2025-12 |
| Capital expenditure | Rp22.87tn | Capital expenditure of the latest fiscal year | Annual report 2025-12 |
Checks of the Model
- Sources equal uses
- The equity price is above nil
- The sponsor's equity is above nil
- Each balance of debt stays between nil and its amount at closing
- Cash is the cash of the year before and the cash flow of the year
- Cash stays at the minimum unless a shortfall is stated
- The 6 parts of the bridge add up to the proceeds less the sponsor's equity
- The cash flows at the internal rate of return have a present value of nil
Deal Lab computes arithmetic on published figures and on the assumptions of the user. It values no company, recommends no transaction and forecasts no result.